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Trend Following, 5th Edition: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets (Wiley Trading) 5th ed. Edition

by Michael W Covel (Author), Barry Ritholtz (Foreword)

4.4 665 ratings

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Want to take the financial journey to a new investing philosophy that might very well affect the rest of your moneymaking life? No one can guarantee the yellow brick road, but Michael Covel promises the red pill will leave you wide freaking awake.Trend Following reveals the truth about a trading strategy that makes money in up, down and surprise markets. By applying straightforward and repeatable rules, anyone can learn to make money in the markets whether bull, bear, or black swan--by following the trend to the end when it bends. In this timely reboot of his bestselling classic, Michael Covel dives headfirst into trend following strategy to examine the risks, benefits, people, and systems. You'll hear from traders who have made millions by following trends, and learn from their successes and mistakes--insights only here. You'll learn the trend philosophy, and how it has performed in booms, bubbles, panics and crashes. Using incontrovertible data and overwhelming supporting evidence, with a direct connection to the foundations of behavioral finance, Covel takes you inside the core principles of trend following and shows everyone, from brand new trader to professional, how alpha gets pulled from the market.Covel's newest edition has been revised and extended, with 7 brand new interviews and research proof from his one of kind network. This is trend following for today's generation. If you're looking to go beyond passive index funds and trusting the Fed, this cutting edge classic holds the keys to a weatherproof portfolio.Meet great trend followers learning their rules and philosophy of the game Examine data to see how trend following excels when the you-know-what hits the fan Understand trend trading, from behavioral economics to rules based decision-making to its lambasting of the efficient markets theory Compare trend trading systems to do it yourself or invest with a trend fund Trend following is not prediction, passive index investing, buy and hope or any form of fundamental analysis. It utilizes concrete rules, or heuristics, to profit from a behavioral perspective. Trend Following is clear-cut, straightforward and evidence-based and will secure your financial future in bull, bear and black swan markets. If you're finally ready to profit in the markets, Trend Following is the definitive treatise for a complex world in constant chaos.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

TREND FOLLOWING

"When it is a question of money, everyone is of the same religion."
--Voltaire

Want to take the financial journey to a new investing philosophy that might very well affect the rest of your moneymaking life? No one can guarantee the yellow brick road, but Michael Covel promises the red pill will leave you wide awake.

Trend Following reveals the truth about a trading strategy that makes money in up, down, and surprise markets. By applying straightforward and repeatable rules, anyone can learn to make money in the markets--whether bull, bear, or black swan--by following the trend to the end when it bends. In this timely reboot of his bestselling classic, Michael Covel dives headfirst into trend following strategy to examine the risks, benefits, people, and systems. You'll hear from traders who have made millions, and learn from their successes and mistakes--insights you'll only find here. You'll learn the trend philosophy and how it has performed in booms, bubbles, panics, and crashes. Using incontrovertible data and overwhelming supporting evidence, with a direct connection to the foundations of behavioral finance, Covel takes you inside the core principles of trend following and shows everyone, from brand new trader to professional, how alpha gets pulled from the market.

Covel's newest edition has been revised and extended, with seven brand new interviews and research proof from his one-of-a-kind network. This is trend following for today's generation. If you're looking to go beyond passive index funds and trusting the Fed, this cutting-edge classic holds the keys to a weatherproof portfolio.

Meet great trend followers and learn their rules and philosophy of the game
Examine data to see how trend following excels when the you-know-what hits the fan
Understand trend trading, from behavioral economics to rules-based decision making to its lambasting of the efficient market theory
Learn trend trading philosophy and do it yourself or invest with a trend following fund

Trend following is not prediction, passive index investing, buy and hope, or any form of fundamental analysis. It utilizes concrete rules, or heuristics, to profit from a behavioral perspective. Trend Following is clear-cut, straightforward, and evidence based. If you're finally ready to profit in the markets, Trend Following is the definitive treatise for a complex world in constant chaos.

From the Back Cover

"Michael Covel's Trend Following: Essential."
--Ed Seykota, profiled in Market Wizards

"Covel's Trend Following is the must-read for all investors. Why? Because every investor needs a trend to make money, and when the trend shifts investors need to follow it. Read it."
--Wesley R. Gray, PhD, CEO, Alpha Architect, and author of Quantitative Momentum

"While enjoying this book, be sure to look up another resource from Covel-his remarkable podcast. Michael has a gift for interviewing, and it is fun and educational to follow him into the offices of many serious traders."
--Dr. Alexander Elder, Author, The New Trading for a Living

"Covel's Trend Following has become an investment classic and a must read for anyone who wants to better understand how to profit from the financial markets using systematic and unbiased approaches."
--Cullen Roche, Founder, Orcam Financial Group, LLC

"Trend following: If it is going up, buy it. If it is going down, sell it. How could something seemingly so simple be so controversial? The answer lies in the definitions: What does going up mean? Going down? What's a trend? What's a turn? These questions have a wide variety of answers, largely dependent on the goals and risk/reward preferences of the answerer. In Trend Following Mr. Covel covers the waterfront. You'll find many definitions of trend following here, each with its advocates. You will be able to compare and contrast approaches and perhaps find one that suits you. At the very least, after reading this book you'll have the territory mapped and understand what trend following has to offer."
--John Bollinger, Founder, www.BollingerBands.com

"While financial television obsessively tracks every tick in the stock market, Michael Covel's Trend Following continues to draw attention to a strategy, diversified trend following, that generates unique returns for disciplined investors with a long-run time horizon."
--Tadas Viskanta, Founder and Editor, Abnormal Returns; Author, Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere

Product details

ASIN ‏ : ‎ 1119371872
Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; 5th ed. edition (April 24, 2017)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 688 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9781119371878
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1119371878
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.87 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 7.8 x 1.7 x 9.3 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #232,214 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #299 in Investment Analysis & Strategy
- #384 in Stock Market Investing (Books)
- #707 in Introduction to Investing

Customer Reviews:
4.4 665 ratings

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Michael Covel

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Michael Covel searches. He digs. He goes behind the curtain to reveal a state of mind the system doesn’t want you in.

Characterized as essential and required reading, Covel teaches beginners to seasoned pros how to generate profits with straightforward repeatable rules and is best known for popularizing the controversial trading strategy TREND FOLLOWING.

An avowed entrepreneur, Covel is the author of five books including the international bestseller, Trend Following and his investigative narrative, TurtleTrader. Fascinated by reclusive traders who have quietly generated spectacular returns for decades, those going against the investment orthodoxy of “efficient markets”, Covel has uncovered astonishing insights about human behavior, decision-making and trading systems.

His perspectives have garnered international acclaim and have earned him invitations with a host of organizations: China Asset Management, GIC Private Limited (Singapore sovereign wealth fund), BM&F Bovespa, Managed Funds Association, Bank of China Investment Management, Market Technicians Association and multiple hedge funds and mutual funds. He also has the distinction of interviewing five Nobel Prize winners in economics (so far), including Daniel Kahneman and Harry Markowitz and has been featured by major press, including The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CCTV, The Straits Times and Fox Business.

His highly ranked podcast Trend Following™ reaches over one hundred eighty-eight countries with over 5 million listens. Guests include world-class thinkers, psychologists, economists and traders.

Covel posts on Twitter, publishes his blog and records a podcast weekly. His clients are in 70+ countries and he splits time across USA and Asia.

Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5

665 global ratings

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Vanessa Aguirre

A must read

Reviewed in the United States on March 18, 2024

Verified Purchase

Great book on trend following

Helpful

Amazing companion for bookworm

You don't get it!!!

Reviewed in the United States on May 31, 2018

Verified Purchase

I usually don't write book reviews as I don't like to feed the mass hysteria, but I had to pay my respects to Mike without whom I would have been still stuck working for the man and would have lost whatever was left after the 2008 fiasco.

I stumbled upon Turtle traders sometime in 2009 after losing more than half of my wealth in 2008. Before coming to a conclusion on how awful investor I would have been, I would like to tell that I had years of experience working in Investment banks and had pretty good idea of the markets and drank the same cool aid which my fellow traders drank. But unlike the big banks I didn't have the government save me when sh*t hit the fan.

Now 9 years later, thanks to Mike and his books, I trade in 30 different markets while staying on a small island (literally) where nothing interesting happens. Due to him I was able to cut out the noise. I am not on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Reddit or any other mass hysteria channels. I don't watch CNBC or Bloomberg, unless there is nothing interesting on Netflix to watch and I need some entertainment. I made more money in times when everyone was bleeding and just to test my models even traded cryptos and made a bloody fortune there as well.

What people don't get is that this book is not a handbook of trading. It is more like a map which will help you develop the thought process to become a system trader. Our problem today is we want handouts, ready formulae for milking the cash cow. But that's not how the world works. No one will give you their money making formula in a book. You have to go out and figure it out yourself. What this book can help you is to figure out the right path. The interviews in the new edition is pure gold. If you know what those legendary traders are saying, you will know they are giving out the secret in plain words, its up to the reader to comprehend.

Finally I would like to say this book is like The Bible. Some people think its a storybook, some get inspired and some find God.

P.S: I know many of the reviews book is not actionable and its true coz its not supposed to be actionable. Now if you decided to take the red pill and go down the rabbit hole, its going to take a lot of hard work. First thing (and the most difficult one) will be to throw out all your beliefs and start from scratch. Brush up or learn more about Statistics and Probability (tons of books and free courses out there) which is absolutely necessary. Learn more about Game Theory which I feel is very important. Then if you are still alive and want to get some more, I suggest these books for further reading

1. Thinking, Fast and Slow This is the base of Trend Following, understanding human behaviour.
2. Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts How to make decisions when you have limited variables you can control and no whatsoever no control on the outcome.
3. Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha (Wiley Trading) A book by Chief Scientist of ISAM and legendary Trend Follower which will be your induction to the world of Managed Futures
4. Following the Trend: Diversified Managed Futures Trading (Wiley Trading) A wonderful read on actual Trend Following
5. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals (Wiley Trading) This one gets bit technical but this is the real deal. This book will dissect TA and help you decide how to evaluate strategies. This is a no BS book but you should be open to receive the knowledge
6. Trading Systems: A New Approach to System Development and Portfolio Optimisation This one is bit old but this one helped me a lot when I was building up my first system and the methods still hold good and will continue to hold good for any person starting out on the journey.

72 people found this helpful

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nickrb24

This is a great book. I think everyone is always looking for ...

Reviewed in the United States on September 4, 2017

Verified Purchase

This is a great book. I think everyone is always looking for an edge when it comes to investing or trading. I’ve read many books on trading that claim to have the next magic formula and that your guaranteed to make money. They also do a great deal of predicting markets and telling you what they think is going to happen. Once you wrap your head around trend following you realize there is no magic formula and that listening to anyone who thinks they can predict the future is a big waste of time. If you have been around long enough to experience a significant downturn in the market, you start to realize you need a better approach. I know I did. What I really like about Michael is he is up front and straight forward about the thought process that goes into trend following. It really makes you think differently and realize the things you should be paying attention to are not mindless predictions and magic formulas, but things in your control like your own mind set, risk management, position sizing, etc. Once I grasped the concepts and started concentrating on the things in my control, I soon realized it’s really making me a much better investor. I think the value you get from this book is excellent. In addition, you have access to Michael's podcast which is free and also excellent. Highly recommended.

3 people found this helpful

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sadiii

Great book but POOR handling & shipping

Reviewed in the United States on February 11, 2022

Verified Purchase

It’s a great book I have the eBook & I wanted the physical one. Had to order a replacement because it was sent & damaged. Has sticky residue in the opening pages & some marks on the pages.

Helpful

Amazon Customer

This is incredibly helpful for someone developing their own systems not because of any hot tips on programming your own system b

Reviewed in the United States on May 15, 2017

Verified Purchase

The new edition of Trend Following is a must have addition to any investment library. Where most other trading books review specific systems or techniques, Covel starts with the model of why trend following works and how it compares to other approaches. He backs up his views with case studies of successful trend followers with the notable addition of David Harding in this edition.

In this edition Covel also adds interviews with some of the world's top trend following traders. This is incredibly helpful for someone developing their own systems not because of any hot tips on programming your own system but because it gives you an inside look at how some of the best think, approach problems, and what they seem to consider important and what they don't. If you read this interviews and don't walk away with a deeper understanding of what to focus on in your systems you just weren't paying attention.

The last section of the book includes curated papers from traders around the world. This is incredibly helpful as it gives some examples of how to approach back testing and system design at a very tactical level and nicely rounds out the rest of the book. It also provides evidence that trends are a feature of markets that history suggests will not be arbed away.

There are many books out there that talk through very specific trading rules or systems. Others describe discretionary traders with some magic sauce that can't be replicated. Trend Following gives you a framework to develop repeatable processes that make money in markets.

5 people found this helpful

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Bruno Maida

Indispensável leitura

Reviewed in Brazil on October 7, 2022

Verified Purchase

Livro para a biblioteca de qualquer pessoa que deseja estar e ficar no mercado financeiro.

Translate review to English

Amazon Customer

Great book! Lots of info

Reviewed in Canada on October 9, 2021

Verified Purchase

Fantastic book with a lot of info to back up this trading strategy. A lot of hidden gems throughout the book for those who have eyes to see. I highly recommend this book as well as Michael's podcast. It has helped me step up my trading game like no other strategy I have used (I use multi-strategy for my portfolio).

One person found this helpful

Thomas

Il libro si potrebbe riassumere nella frase:" Il Trend Following paga ancora".

Reviewed in Italy on March 12, 2020

Verified Purchase

Se l'obiettivo dell'autore era quello di esaltare il Trend Following come metodologia operativa sui mercati mostrando dati e statistiche a suffragio di questo ci è riuscito in pieno e per questo meriterebbe 5 stelle.
Però ho notato da molti commenti che chi lo ha acquistato cercava un libro con meno numeri, dati, statistiche, percentuali ma più "operatività".
In questo senso ho un consiglio da dare.
Acquistatelo SOLO se siete curiosi di sapere se il Trend Following paga ancora come metodo di Trading.
Se cercate un libro "operativo" in cui vengono spiegate tecniche, strategie, esempi di Trading System da utilizzare lasciate perdere, non troverete nulla di tutto ciò.

If the author's goal was to enhance Trend Following as an operational methodology on the markets by showing data and statistics in support of this, he succeeded in full and for this he deserves 5 stars.
But I have noticed from many comments that those who bought it were looking for a book with fewer numbers, data, statistics, percentages but more "operations".
In this sense I have a piece of advice to give.
Purchase it ONLY if you are curious to know if Trend Following still pays as a trading method.
If you are looking for an "operational" book which explains techniques, strategies, examples of Trading System to use, forget it, you will not find any of this.

2 people found this helpful

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CV

How I got my experience of a great book ruined by Amazon

Reviewed in Germany on December 7, 2019

Verified Purchase

Hi, The book is really worth reading if you are interested in market strategies around trends and momentum. However, I got my book in a soaked paperbox from Amazon. It’s just a shame Amazon can’t do a better job ruining my experience with this great book. The book I got is just a wreck !!! Poor work by Amazon !!!

Mantas

You cant see until you learn to see

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 6, 2019

Verified Purchase

This is a rare gem packed with a lot of valuable information and insights that will help you hone your trading skills and thinking, no matter whether you are a novice or an experienced trader. You will want to have a copy of this on your bookshelf, even if you have listened to the audiobook, which I would highly recommend.

Readers looking for quick takeaway strategies will be disappointed as this will require some work on their part. The insights in this book are more valuable than any off-the-shelf strategy would ever provide. No matter whether you are a 'trend follower' or trade more active strategies this book will help you build effective habits.

On another note, the Trendfollowing podcast by M Covel is one of the best trading/interesting podcasts out there, on a variety of topics and would highly recommend you check it out if you haven’t done so already, you can thank me later.

To your success!

8 people found this helpful

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