Hundreds of technical experts from many of China’s biggest state-owned and private companies, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Telecom, Meituan, and Baidu, all gathered in Beijing last month. The purpose behind the meeting was for their staff to receive training so they could be certified as developers on Huawei’s Harmony Operation System (OS).
While most observers were looking the other way, Huawei has been quietly building an independent Chinese operating system that isn’t subject to U.S. sanctions. In the four years after the telecom giant was banned from using Google apps, the Shenzhen-based company has been making significant strides toward achieving its long-term goal: To dethrone Android and make its HarmonyOS the default operating system in China.
Looking at the data for smartphone sales in China shows that HarmonyOS had the third-largest share with 10% in the second quarter of 2023, thanks to a strong resurgence in sales of Huawei smartphones. Although it’s still well below Android’s dominant 72%, it’s not far from iOS’s 17%.
A customer looks at a newly launched Mate 60 smartphone at a Huawei flagship store after the company ... [+]
Should Huawei succeed in achieving widespread adoption of its HarmonyOS, the Chinese tech giant—and by extension, China—would have a more self-reliant tech stack that isn’t vulnerable to U.S. restrictions.
And that scenario becomes more likely if China utilizes its proven “whole-nation approach” to achieve this goal. And it would substantially diminish America’s leverage over China in the tech sphere. A U.S.-China decoupling could eventually materialize, potentially resulting in increased global instability.
Counting HarmonyOS’ Milestones Over the Years
There have been numerous attempts to develop operating systems, including Windows Mobile, Samsung Bada, Firefox OS, and Nokia's Meego. But after initially challenging the dominant players, they all eventually faded.
Huawei appears poised to defy the same outcome, as it has the support of the Chinese government and a tried-and-true whole-nation development model.
Huawei already says more than 700 million devices (including phones, smart devices, computers, and others) were equipped with HarmonyOS as of August this year, with over 2.2 million developers actively building within the ecosystem.
Huawei first unveiled HarmonyOS in 2019, right after the company was banned from accessing Google apps. Initially, HarmonyOS was primarily deployed in smart devices such as wearables, IoT (Internet of Things) devices, and in-car systems.
In 2020, the company launched the HarmonyOS 2.0 developer beta for smartphones, and then rolled it out to other smartphones and tablets in the following year. Starting in 2021, HarmonyOS began making rapid adoption as the company sought to collaborate with major Chinese state-owned and private firms.
The apps that Chinese consumers use daily, including Tencent’s WeChat, Douyin (TikTok’s Chinese version), Alibaba’s Alipay, ride-hailing app Didi, and food delivery app Meituan, have all created or are in the process of creating apps dedicated to HarmonyOS.
Moreover, many local governments have also launched policies to support the wider adoption of HarmonyOS. For instance, Shenzhen’s government has a plan aimed at eliminating “key bottleneck technologies” and seeks to “elevate HarmonyOS” to be on par with the world’s leading operating systems by 2025.
The plan’s specific incentives include encouraging government entities to purchase HarmonyOS devices and giving awards to successful use cases of HarmonyOS software.
There is a growing expectation in government-led sectors, including education, financial services, transportation, public services, and industrial sectors, that tasks for HarmonyOS’ adoption should be pushed through with “China speed.”
That means HarmonyOS could reach 1 billion devices next year, which would be a mere five years after its birth, and the momentum will almost certainly accelerate further for the next several years.
Where Could HarmonyOS Be in Five Years?
To be sure, Huawei still lags far behind the industry leaders. Android and iOS dominate the wider global market today, with the former holding a 70.5% share and the latter having 29%.
The 700 million devices that Huawei claims are equipped with HarmonyOS still lag far those global heavyweights. The Android OS counts a whopping 3.3 billion users worldwide; while Apple has 1.96 billion iOS users. Although a direct comparison doesn’t seem valid considering that they operate on different scales in different markets, they do help to illustrate the vast gap between Huawei and its rivals.
Huawei’s plans for HarmonyOS is said to consist of two stages. Stage one is to achieve wide adoption within China; stage two is for HarmonyOS to spread outside of China, potentially leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The initial goal of the two stages is to create a “minimum viable product” for an operating system that won’t cause too much of an inconvenience for users. Currently, the HarmonyOS ecosystem offers hundreds of apps, compared to 1.6 billion apps in the Google Play store and 1.5 billion apps in the Apple Store.
Huawei’s aim is to have the top 100 apps adapted by 2025, and the top 500 apps adapted by 2027.
A key moment will come next year, when Huawei says HarmonyOS will no longer be compatible with Android apps. The likes of Douyin and WeChat would need to have HarmonyOS native versions in order to be used by users with HarmonyOS devices.
HarmonyOS' logo is displayed at a Huawei store in Shanghai, China.
That would be HarmonyOS’ first major step as it tries to walk on its own, compelling app developers to adapt exclusively to its platform. Previously, Android apps were compatible with HarmonyOS.
As HarmonyOS gains traction among Chinese government bodies, industries, and private companies, Huawei would also be poised for international expansion. The Beijing-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could serve as a catalyst, with state-owned enterprises in construction, logistics, and transportation potentially integrating HarmonyOS into their global operations.
It is reasonable to expect that HarmonyOS could become the second-largest operating system in China by grabbing significant market share from Android over the next five years. Overseas, HarmonyOS could secure initial adoption in BRI countries in specific sectors.
Still ManyUncertainties for HarmonyOS
Developing an operating system requires substantial investment and effort, encompassing billions of devices, users, and apps. Even with China's whole-nation approach, the process will be arduous.
Paradoxically, how successful HarmonyOS will be partially depends on the U.S. If the U.S. relaxes its export controls—for any reason—the urgency for domestic replacements diminishes.
Chinese private firms might not feel as compelled to adopt HarmonyOS. Conversely, if U.S. restrictions continue to increase, this could hasten the rapid widespread adoption of HarmonyOS.
However, Huawei always sets its sights higher. Besides HarmonyOS, Huawei is also working to develop advanced chips independent of U.S. restrictions.
As Chinese semiconductor manufacturers devise methods to produce Huawei’s Kirin chips, the company could be well on its way to expanding beyond the shadow of U.S. sanctions.
Lastly, HarmonyOS has already incorporated generative AI capabilities in its latest iteration in August. An AI assistant embedded in the HarmonyOS has the abilities to chat, search for information, do translations and provide text summaries.
As the belief grows that the next generation of operating systems will be based on generative AI, Huawei’s HarmonyOS is poised to compete early and aggressively for a prominent position.
