Stefano Manfrin’s Post

Rationing of electricity in Norway: Major consequences for gas exports to European countries? The weekly reservoir statistics for water resources in the hydroelectric water reservoirs from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) for week 29 published on 27 July 2022 show a slight increase in the total amount of water in reservoirs. Nevertheless, there are still abnormally low filling rates in several areas and especially in Southern Norway. In South-West Norway (NO2) that supplies power to all international interconnector cables, the filling rate is the lowest in the last 20 years with only 48.3 percent against the median rate for week 29 over the period 2002 to 2021 of 72.8 percent. Also in East Norway (NO1) for week 29 there is an historically low filling rate; 66.6 percent versus the same median 79.8 percent. The probability of electricity rationing in the Southern part of Norway (NO1, NO2 and NO5) during the 2022/23 winter increases with this hydroelectric water resource situation. If electricity rationing affects the electrified oil and gas fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), this will have major consequences for gas exports to Europe," says Equinor’s CEO Anders Opedal. Mr. Opedal has stated to NTB (The Norwegian News Agency) that the fields on the NCS having been electrified based on power from the onshore grid, cannot be operated in the "old-fashioned way". [They cannot return to offshore gas turbines and/or diesel-powered generators on the field installations.] "[If] we shut down Troll A, then we shut down a significant part of the gas to Europe [technical gas export capacity 128 MSm3/day or about 36% of total Norwegian daily gas export capacity and receiving power from NO5]. For Norway as an energy nation, it [a shut down of a gas platform such as Troll A] has major consequences," says Opedal. At the same time, Opedal believes that it is too early to say what impact rationing of electric power will have for the operation of the Norwegian oil and gas infrastructure. "First we'll see if we get there. And then this will also be something that [the Norwegian] government will have to take care of, and they will have to look at which industries and households they want to prioritize," he says. Nations such as the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark importing electric power from NO2 in Norway, as well as importers of Norwegian pipeline gas either directly or indirectly being Belgium, France, Italy, Ireland, Poland etc. should urgently include in their energy supply considerations for the winter of 2022/23 that European countries' imports of electric power from Norway may have consequences for the availability of Norwegian gas. Kathryn Porter