FLORIDA EAST COAST MARINE WEATHER (edited by Dean)

A weak cold front stalled across the FL/GA line Thursday. High pressure building over the western Atlantic off the east coast will bridge the dead front and unite with a weaker high to the south on Friday, strengthening the onshore flow over the weekend leading to cautionary conditions for near shore waters Saturday afternoon with possible small craft advisory conditions offshore as seas build Saturday evening and into early Sunday morning. The high pressure will then shift southward while gradually weakening late in the weekend, becoming anchored off the southeastern seaboard for much of next week. Consequently, winds and seas will gradually diminish from Sunday afternoon through the early part of the upcoming work week.

7-DAY SURF FORECAST

SATURDAY: Wind increasing from the east 14-21 mph and gusty with waves up during the day to 1.5-2′ (+pm) in close period (5-6 sec) east swell.

SUNDAY(28Apr): Onshore wind from the E/ESE “easing” some to 11-16 mph with waves leveling off at 1.5-occ 2.5′ (+/-0.5′) in close to moderate period (6-7 sec) east swell. Onshore wind may lay down a bit more by evening.

MONDAY: Wind lighter from the SE 7-13 mph with waves 1-2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate period (7-8 sec) E/ESE swell.

TUESDAY: Wind light early, then S/SE 6-14 mph with waves 1-occ 2′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to period (8 sec) ESE swell.

WEDNESDAY(May Day): Wind light S/SW in the morning, becoming SE 7-15 mph in the afternoon with waves 1-1.5′ (+/-0.5′) in moderate to longer period (8-9 sec) ESE swell.

THURSDAY:

FRIDAY:

7-10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK (with Hurricane Season Outlook)

Surf temps north of the Cape finally climbed out of the upper 60’sF in mid-April, exceeding the “magical” 70F-degree mark for good the following week. Given the longer daylight and lack of rainfall, SST’s will continue to climb through the mid-70’s In early May, possibly reaching the nitro tropical fuel 80F mark (several weeks early) throughout the SW Atlantic and Gomex around Memorial Day, so it would not suprise me to see Alberto form before the June 1 official start of the 2024 hurricane season. Modeling suggests several fairly strong lows will periodically spin up in the sub-tropical Atlantic well east of Hatteras, complimenting the ongoing onshore flow “trade wind” swell with an occassional longer period ground swell component… stay tuned!

CSU’s forecast for an active hurricane season was issued in early April: 2024 Tropical Forecast.

NWS Coastal Waters/Weather Forecast Links

St. Augustine to Flagler Beach

NWS Jacksonville Coastal Forecast

NOAA upgrading nearshore wave prediction.

Atlantic Ocean Buoy Swell Height (Current and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast nearshore buoys: St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Canaveral. Further offshore: Canaveral east and western Atlantic buoys.

7-day St. Augustine buoy sea height forecast (primary swell).

Florida Coastal Forecast Map (click on zone)

Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida

NWPS significant wave height and direction 5-day forecast for Jacksonville to St. Augustine nearshore coastal waters
Please see the CPC Prognostic Discussion for official forecast discussion.

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This graph illustrates the 14-day forecast for primary swell height and period for the St. Augustine offshore buoy:

St Augustine buoy 14-day forecast

This map illustrates sea height contour (in feet) for the near shore Atlantic Ocean east of Florida:

map n/a
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This sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
Here is a good link to monitor open ocean storm systems in the distant Atlantic:
This surface weather map analyzes weather observations, surface pressure (mb) and fronts in the southeast US:
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FLORIDA EAST COAST ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)
GULF OF MEXICO SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE (C)

Sea surface temps in the GOMEX and western Caribbean Sea.

To monitor real-time wind speed/direction over and around Florida, here is the surface wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) SE US regional map

Watch this GOES loop for lightning signatures that indicate intense convection.

Here’s the big picture to monitor for additional tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.

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The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity. Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US:  Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL

Here is a link to the impact hurricane activity has on our coast: Florida beaches face sand shortage

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion

This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s tele-connection (PNA) with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to NOAA’s ENSO website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
OTHER LINKS
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
Here is the link to weather conditions (updated hourly) throughout the state (includes nearshore buoys): http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=hourly
Here is the east coast wind/surface pressure loop to watch for lows forming off the southeast coast of the US: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=useast_slp
This is the loop of primary swell heights in the western Atlantic: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_swell and a closer look at the southeast US: http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=21&res=750&type=swell&starttime
Here is a link with eastern seaboard buoy readings (current and forecasted) all grouped together for your viewing pleasure: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/hatsrprt.shtml
Here is the link to all of the nearshore buoys surrounding Florida to monitor wave height, wind speed/direction, and barometric pressure: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Link to phenomenal wave heights measured on offshore buoys: huge open-ocean waves
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter.  Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:  http://www.ocearch.org/#SharkTracker
Last (but not least), here is a drone footage of tow-in session @ Nazare
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Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming).